Evaluation of the models generated from clinical features and deep learning-based segmentations: Can thoracic CT on admission help us to predict hospitalized COVID-19 patients who will require intensive care?

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to predict the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) care for inpatient COVID-19 cases using clinical and artificial intelligence segmentation-based volumetric and CT-radiomics parameters on admission. METHODS: Twenty-eight clinical/laboratory features, 21 volumetric parameters, and 74 radiomics parameters obtained by deep learning (DL)-based segmentations from CT examinations of 191 severe COVID-19 inpatients admitted between March 2020 and March 2021 were collected. Patients were divided into Group 1 (117 patients discharged from the inpatient service) and Group 2 (74 patients transferred to the ICU), and the differences between the groups were evaluated with the T-test and Mann-Whitney test. The sensitivities and specificities of significantly different parameters were evaluated by ROC analysis. Subsequently, 152 (79.5%) patients were assigned to the training/cross-validation set, and 39 (20.5%) patients were assigned to the test set. Clinical, radiological, and combined logit-fit models were generated by using the Bayesian information criterion from the training set and optimized via tenfold cross-validation. To simultaneously use all of the clinical, volumetric, and radiomics parameters, a random forest model was produced, and this model was trained by using a balanced training set created by adding synthetic data to the existing training/cross-validation set. The results of the models in predicting ICU patients were evaluated with the test set. RESULTS: No parameter individually created a reliable classifier. When the test set was evaluated with the final models, the AUC values were 0.736, 0.708, and 0.794, the specificity values were 79.17%, 79.17%, and 87.50%, the sensitivity values were 66.67%, 60%, and 73.33%, and the F1 values were 0.67, 0.62, and 0.76 for the clinical, radiological, and combined logit-fit models, respectively. The random forest model that was trained with the balanced training/cross-validation set was the most successful model, achieving an AUC of 0.837, specificity of 87.50%, sensitivity of 80%, and F1 value of 0.80 in the test set. CONCLUSION: By using a machine learning algorithm that was composed of clinical and DL-segmentation-based radiological parameters and that was trained with a balanced data set, COVID-19 patients who may require intensive care could be successfully predicted.

A CT radiomics analysis of COVID-19-related ground-glass opacities and consolidation: Is it valuable in a differential diagnosis with other atypical pneumonias?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the discrimination of parenchymal lesions between COVID-19 and other atypical pneumonia (AP) by using only radiomics features. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 301 pneumonic lesions (150 ground-glass opacity [GGO], 52 crazy paving [CP], 99 consolidation) obtained from nonenhanced thorax CT scans of 74 AP (46 male and 28 female; 48.25±13.67 years) and 60 COVID-19 (39 male and 21 female; 48.01±20.38 years) patients were segmented manually by two independent radiologists, and Location, Size, Shape, and First- and Second-order radiomics features were calculated. RESULTS: Multiple parameters showed significant differences between AP and COVID-19-related GGOs and consolidations, although only the Range parameter was significantly different for CPs. Models developed by using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for the whole group of GGO and consolidation lesions predicted COVID-19 consolidation and AP GGO lesions with low accuracy (46.1% and 60.8%, respectively). Thus, instead of subjective classification, lesions were reclassified according to their skewness into positive skewness group (PSG, 78 AP and 71 COVID-19 lesions) and negative skewness group (NSG, 56 AP and 44 COVID-19 lesions), and group-specific models were created. The best AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were respectively 0.774, 75.8%, 74.6%, and 76.9% among the PSG models and 0.907, 83%, 79.5%, and 85.7% for the NSG models. The best PSG model was also better at predicting NSG lesions smaller than 3 mL. Using an algorithm, 80% of COVID-19 and 81.1% of AP patients were correctly predicted. CONCLUSION: During periods of increasing AP, radiomics parameters may provide valuable data for the differential diagnosis of COVID-19.